Articles

The tryscorer model answers one focused question: It does not independently predict team scoring volume. That comes from the result model through nrl.nrl_predictions.expected_tries. The tryscorer model takes that team total and allocates it across the lineup. In simple terms: If a team is projected for 3.0 tries and a winger is estimated to own 18% of that team's try-scoring opportunity, the player receives: That expected-tries number is then converted into anytime, two-plus, and three-plus try probabilities. Why It Predicts Share Raw player tries are extremely noisy. Most players score zero tries in most games, and even strong finishers can go several weeks without scoring. A direct raw-tries model can easily mix up team opportunity with player ability. This model separates...

Modern rugby league analysis needs more than traditional position labels. A fullback, winger, half, or middle forward tells us where a player lines up, but not how they actually influence a match. That is where NRL archetypes become useful. An archetype groups players by playing style. Instead of asking only whether someone is a centre or a second-rower, archetypes ask a sharper question: what kind of centre or second-rower are they? Some players create tries. Some bend the defensive line. Some win metres through repeated carries. Others contribute through passing, kicking, defensive workload, or support play. By analysing statistical patterns, we can separate players into meaningful role profiles that better reflect what they do on the field. Why Archetypes Matter...

The margin model is built to answer a harder question than simply "who wins?" It tries to estimate how much better one team is than the other on the day. That makes it useful for three different things at once: The model starts with historical match data, team performance trends, market information, try-timing patterns, and a set of leakage-safe rolling match stat features. The goal is to create a fair estimate of the home team's expected margin. Why Margin Matters Predicting a winner is useful, but margin is more informative. A team projected to win by 1 point and a team projected to win by 18 points are both "tips", but they are very different predictions. Margin gives the model...

The fantasy projection model is built around the idea that a useful projection should be specific to the role a player is expected to play, rather than being a straight reading of his season average or recent scores. Base And Upside The core feature of this model is that fantasy scores are now split into base and upside before the projection is built. Base is intended to capture the repeatable part of a player's scoring profile: tackles, run metres, kick metres, and conversions. Upside is everything left after base has been removed, which means it includes both positive attacking events and negative events such as missed tackles, errors, penalties, and other volatile scoring outcomes. The base calculation is: This split...